Global temperatures are expected to remain at or near record highs over the next five years, with the Arctic warming far faster than the global average, according to a new climate outlook released by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
The forecast, contained in the Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update 2026–2035, warns that the world is likely to experience continued extreme heat, with at least one year between 2026 and 2030 expected to surpass 2024 as the hottest year on record.
The report, compiled with contributions from 13 climate research institutes and led by Britain’s Met Office, projects that global average near-surface temperatures will range between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above pre-industrial levels (1850–1900) over the 2026–2030 period.
It also indicates a high probability that the five-year average will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, a key threshold under the Paris Agreement, although scientists stress that this does not yet represent a long-term breach of climate targets.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said temporary exceedances of 1.5°C are becoming increasingly likely as global warming trends continue to rise.
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The report highlights a strong likelihood of El Niño conditions emerging toward the end of 2026, which could further intensify global temperatures and increase the chances of another record-breaking year in 2027.
Dr. Leon Hermanson, a lead author of the study, said the anticipated El Niño event could amplify warming trends already underway, contributing to extreme temperature anomalies across multiple regions.
The outlook also points to significant regional differences in warming patterns, with the Arctic expected to experience temperature anomalies more than three times the global average.
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According to the report, Arctic temperatures during northern hemisphere winters from 2026 to 2030 are projected to be around 2.8°C above the 1991–2020 average, underscoring the accelerating pace of polar warming.
Scientists warn that such rapid Arctic warming is likely to have cascading effects on global weather systems, including sea level rise, shifting precipitation patterns and more frequent extreme weather events.
The report notes that while short-term fluctuations are expected, the underlying trajectory of global temperatures remains upward, driven primarily by greenhouse gas emissions from human activity.
Climate experts say the findings reinforce urgent calls for accelerated emissions reductions and stronger adaptation measures, particularly in vulnerable regions already experiencing heat stress, drought and flooding.
The WMO stressed that while individual years above 1.5°C do not necessarily mean the Paris Agreement targets have been permanently breached, they do signal increasing pressure on global climate systems.
The findings add to growing concern among scientists that the world is entering a new phase of climate volatility, with more frequent extremes becoming the norm rather than the exception.
