Morocco recorded a budget surplus in the first quarter of 2026, supported by stronger revenues and improved agricultural output, even as industrial activity showed uneven performance, official data showed.
The Finance Ministry’s Directorate of Studies and Financial Forecasts said the government posted a surplus of 5.1 billion dirhams (US$552 million) by the end of March, a sharp increase from 768 million dirhams a year earlier.
The improvement was driven by an 8.4 percent rise in ordinary revenues, equivalent to an additional 9 billion dirhams, which outpaced a 4.4 percent increase in overall spending.
Credit growth also picked up pace, reflecting stronger financial sector activity. Bank lending expanded by 8.3 percent year-on-year by the end of February, more than double the 3.9 percent recorded in the same period last year.
Loans to the financial sector surged by 20.8 percent, while credit to the non-financial sector rose by 5.8 percent, including 4.1% growth in loans to businesses and 3.4 percent to households.
External trade remained relatively stable, though with some pressure on the balance. Exports grew modestly by 2 percent, supported by robust performance in key industrial sectors.
Shipments from the automotive industry rose 10.3 percent, aerospace exports increased by 16.5 percent, and electronics grew by 2.5 percent.
Imports edged up by 1.9 percent, driven by a 14.5 percent increase in equipment goods, a 9.3 percent rise in consumer goods, and a sharp 32.9 percent jump in raw material imports.
As a result, the trade deficit widened slightly by 1.7 percent, although the export coverage ratio improved marginally to 59.2 percent.
Agriculture emerged as a key bright spot in the economy, benefiting from favourable weather conditions.
Cereal production for the 2025–2026 season is estimated at 90 million quintals, supported by strong rainfall averaging 520 millimetres — 54 percent above the long-term average.
Water reserves also improved significantly, with dam fill rates reaching 75.7 percent by April 20, compared to just 40% a year earlier.
In contrast, industrial activity presented a mixed picture.
Manufacturing remained relatively resilient, with capacity utilisation at 77.5 percent and continued export gains in several segments.
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However, other sectors showed declines. Phosphate production fell by 9.9 percent, electricity output dropped by 1.7 percent, and cement sales — often seen as a proxy for construction activity — decreased by 10.9 percent by the end of March.
The services sector continued to perform strongly, particularly tourism.
Tourist arrivals increased by 7 percent in the first quarter, while overnight stays rose by 4% by February. Travel receipts recorded a sharp increase of 22.2 percent.
Air traffic also expanded, with passenger numbers up 7.9 percent, while port activity rose by 8.9 percent, indicating steady momentum in logistics and trade-related services.
Inflation remained subdued, easing to -0.1 percent by the end of March from 2 percent a year earlier, helping to support household purchasing power.
Consumer credit rose by 3.9 percent, while remittances from Moroccans living abroad increased by 4.2 percent, further bolstering domestic consumption.
Globally, the outlook remains uncertain.
The International Monetary Fund has revised down its global growth forecast to 3.1 percent for 2026, from an earlier estimate of 3.3%, citing geopolitical tensions and energy market volatility.
Oil prices have also remained elevated, with Brent crude trading at around US$108 per barrel as of April 21.
Despite external headwinds and uneven industrial performance, Morocco’s strong agricultural rebound and improved fiscal position are expected to provide some buffer to the broader economy in the months ahead.
