Global air passenger demand fell by 3.4 percent in April 2026, as escalating conflict in the Middle East disrupted flight routes, pushed up fuel costs and dampened international travel, according to new industry data.
The decline, measured in revenue passenger kilometres (RPK), was reported by the International Air Transport Association, which said the downturn was largely driven by a sharp collapse in traffic to and from the Middle East.
Airlines in the region recorded a 46.6 percent drop in demand, reflecting widespread route disruptions and reduced travel confidence following intensified conflict involving Iran, the United States and Israel.
Overall global capacity also fell by 2.9 percent year-on-year, while the average load factor declined slightly to 83.1 percent, down 0.4 percentage points compared with April 2025.
Despite the global downturn, African airlines recorded a 2.2 percent increase in demand, with capacity rising 1.2 percent, making the region one of the few bright spots in an otherwise weakening global aviation market.
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“The 46.6 percent fall in demand for carriers in the Middle East due to war in the region was so acute that it dragged overall demand down,” said Willie Walsh. He warned that the situation for global air transport remained “highly volatile.”
The industry body also highlighted a steep rise in operating costs, noting that jet fuel prices more than doubled in April, contributing to higher ticket prices and forcing airlines to adjust schedules.
Higher fuel costs, combined with weaker demand, have led some carriers to reduce flight offerings in upcoming months as they seek to balance profitability with market uncertainty.
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International demand fell 5.3 percent overall, while domestic demand remained flat year-on-year. Excluding the Middle East, however, global demand would have increased by 1.2 percent, underscoring the scale of disruption caused by the conflict.
Cargo operations showed a more resilient picture, with global air freight demand rising 4 percent year-on-year, supported by strong Asia-linked trade flows.
However, the International Air Transport Association warned that underlying conditions remain fragile due to shifting trade routes, rising costs and continued geopolitical instability affecting major aviation hubs in the Gulf region.
Jet fuel prices surged 121.1 percent year-on-year in April, while crude oil prices rose 77.7 percent, intensifying pressure on airline margins.
Global trade volumes also weakened, falling 2.1 percent month-on-month in March after several months of growth, further reflecting the sensitivity of global logistics to geopolitical shocks.
Manufacturing activity remained in expansion territory, with the global purchasing managers’ index rising to 53.4, suggesting some underlying support for air cargo demand despite broader uncertainty.
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Industry analysts say the Middle East conflict has become one of the most significant disruptors of global aviation routes in recent years, particularly on key Europe–Asia and Africa–Asia corridors that pass through the region.
The escalation of hostilities in 2026, involving strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran and subsequent retaliatory attacks, has heightened concerns about long-term stability in one of the world’s busiest air transit regions.
Aviation officials warn that continued instability could keep airfares elevated, constrain capacity and reshape global flight networks in the months ahead.
