The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has reaffirmed its forecast for strong global oil demand growth, saying it sees no evidence of a structural decline despite geopolitical tensions and disruptions in key shipping routes.
OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais said the group continues to expect robust demand growth of 1.2 million barrels per day in 2026, maintaining its earlier projections without revision.
Speaking at the St Petersburg International Economic Forum, Al Ghais dismissed growing commentary suggesting that global oil demand may be peaking or entering long-term decline.
“Despite all the commentary out there that oil demand is declining, we have not registered signs of that yet,” he said.
His remarks come at a time of heightened volatility in global energy markets, driven in part by tensions in the Middle East and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global crude oil shipments.
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The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important oil transit routes, historically accounting for about one-fifth of global oil flows. Recent geopolitical instability in the region has raised concerns over supply security and price volatility.
However, OPEC maintained that such disruptions do not alter its medium-term demand outlook, arguing that short-term geopolitical shocks should not influence long-term investment decisions in the energy sector.
Al Ghais emphasized that sustained investment in oil production capacity remains essential to meet future demand, warning against underinvestment driven by temporary market disruptions.
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“We need to invest well ahead of time to be prepared for the demand that we see in the future,” he said.
The OPEC chief also reiterated that global oil demand remains resilient, supported by economic growth in developing economies, industrial expansion and continued reliance on petroleum products across transportation and manufacturing sectors.
The comments come amid ongoing debate within the global energy industry over the pace of the energy transition and the potential peak in fossil fuel demand.
While some analysts have forecast a gradual decline in oil consumption due to renewable energy adoption and electric vehicle growth, OPEC has consistently maintained that demand will remain strong for decades, particularly in emerging markets.
Energy markets have also been influenced by broader geopolitical developments, including supply chain disruptions, trade tensions and fluctuating investment flows in upstream oil and gas projects.
OPEC’s position signals that the group remains committed to its long-term demand outlook and is not adjusting its strategy in response to short-term market volatility.
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The organization continues to play a central role in coordinating global oil supply policy alongside key non-OPEC producers under the OPEC+ framework, which has been instrumental in stabilizing prices in recent years.
