Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to slow in 2026 as the fallout from the conflict in the Middle East drives up energy, food and fertiliser costs, adding fresh pressure to economies already grappling with high debt and financing constraints, the World Bank said on Thursday.
In its latest Global Economic Prospects report, the World Bank projected growth in Sub-Saharan Africa to ease to 4.0 percent in 2026, down slightly from an estimated 4.1 percent in 2025, before recovering to 4.4 percent in 2027.
The lender said the region would be among those affected by the global economic slowdown triggered by disruptions to energy markets following the escalation of conflict in the Middle East.
Global growth is forecast to slow to 2.5 percent in 2026, its weakest pace since the COVID-19 pandemic, compared with 2.9 percent in 2025, as higher oil prices, rising inflation and tighter financial conditions weigh on economic activity worldwide.
According to the report, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has severely disrupted global energy markets, pushing projected Brent crude oil prices to an average of US$94 per barrel in 2026, 36 percent above 2025 levels.
More Read
The World Bank also expects fertiliser prices to rise sharply, increasing production costs for farmers and putting upward pressure on food prices across Africa, where agriculture remains a major source of employment and income.
“Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth is also slowing, with the biggest pressures coming through inflation, including high food prices due to fertiliser supply shortages and price hikes,” the report said.
Many African economies remain heavily dependent on imported fuel, fertiliser and food products, making them particularly vulnerable to external price shocks.
The World Bank warned that higher inflation and borrowing costs could further strain public finances across the region, where many governments are already facing elevated debt burdens and limited fiscal space.
The report noted that public debt levels in developing economies have risen sharply over the past decade, with aggregate government debt climbing from less than 40 percent of GDP in 2010 to more than 70 percent today.
Despite these challenges, the region’s projected growth rate remains above the global average, supported by domestic demand, infrastructure investment and gradual economic reforms in several countries.
World Bank President Ajay Banga said developing countries continue to face a succession of external shocks that threaten economic progress.
“The impact differs by country, but the basic test is the same: protect people and preserve stability today, without giving up on growth and jobs tomorrow,” he said.
To help countries cope with the economic fallout from the conflict, the World Bank said it is preparing up to US$100 billion in support over the next 15 months if conditions worsen.
The institution said it is immediately making available between US$50 billion and US$60 billion, including US$25 billion in pre-arranged financing, to help governments strengthen social protection programmes, support businesses and maintain economic stability.
More than 30 countries are already working with the World Bank to improve preparedness and facilitate rapid access to emergency financing.
The report also highlighted the need for African governments to strengthen fiscal frameworks, improve domestic revenue mobilisation and diversify their economies to reduce vulnerability to commodity price swings.
World Bank Deputy Chief Economist Ayhan Kose said the current crisis should be used as an opportunity to accelerate reforms.
“The conflict has taken a toll on global activity, but every crisis also brings an opportunity,” he said, urging countries to invest in infrastructure, improve the business environment and attract private capital to support long-term growth.
While growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to remain resilient relative to many other regions, the World Bank cautioned that rising inflation, higher food costs and persistent debt challenges could weigh on economic prospects unless governments implement policies to strengthen resilience and support productivity growth.
