South Africa’s agricultural trade surplus rose to a record 25.5 billion rand (US$1.55 billion) in the first quarter of 2026, driven largely by a decline in import costs rather than strong export growth, industry data showed.
According to AgriSA’s Quarterly Trade Report, agricultural exports totalled 54.3 billion rand (US$3.30 billion) during the period, broadly unchanged from a year earlier, while imports fell by 10.6 percent to 29.0 billion rand ($1.76 billion).
The resulting surplus represents an 86 percent increase over five years, underscoring the resilience of South Africa’s agricultural sector in a volatile global trading environment.
However, the report cautioned that the improvement in the trade balance was mainly due to reduced import expenditure, rather than a significant expansion in export volumes.
Horticultural products remained the backbone of South Africa’s agricultural export performance, accounting for 55 percent of total exports in the quarter.
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Key export commodities included grapes, apples, pears, citrus fruits, berries, tree nuts and wine, reinforcing the sector’s role as a major source of foreign exchange earnings and rural employment.
AgriSA said horticulture continues to drive market diversification and supports the country’s efforts to expand its presence in global food markets.
Despite the strong overall trade balance, the sector continues to face structural challenges, particularly in livestock exports, which remain constrained by ongoing outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease.
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The disease has limited South Africa’s access to high-value markets in regions such as the Middle East and Asia, reducing potential export gains in the livestock segment.
The report also noted a sharp 39.9 percent decline in exports to the United States during the quarter, highlighting shifting demand patterns and trade constraints in key markets.
AgriSA warned that increasing concentration of exports in a limited number of markets and product categories poses a risk to the sector’s long-term resilience.
“While the record trade surplus is positive, it also highlights the importance of strengthening export growth, safeguarding market access, and resolving biosecurity challenges such as FMD,” AgriSA chief executive Johann Kotzé said.
He added that sustained competitiveness would depend on South Africa’s ability to diversify export destinations, maintain trusted trading relationships and improve the enabling environment for producers.
The report noted progress in expanding export reach into Asia and the Middle East, where demand for South African horticultural products continues to grow.
Industry stakeholders say these regions present key opportunities for future growth as global food demand shifts and supply chains evolve.
However, analysts caution that biosecurity risks, trade barriers and logistical constraints remain significant obstacles to fully unlocking the sector’s export potential.
South Africa’s agricultural sector is widely regarded as one of the most diversified and export-oriented on the continent, playing a critical role in employment, food security and foreign exchange earnings.
The latest data suggests that while the sector remains robust, sustained export expansion will be necessary to maintain long-term trade balance gains and reduce vulnerability to external shocks.
