Egypt expects its economy to grow between 4.8 percent and 5.2 percent this year, according to official government projections, as authorities maintain a cautious but reform-driven outlook amid global economic uncertainty.
Planning Minister Ahmed Rostom said the government’s medium-term strategy for 2026 and beyond is designed to balance growth ambitions with resilience against external shocks, including geopolitical tensions and volatility in energy and food markets.
He said the country is targeting growth within the 4.8 percent 5.2 percent range for 2026, with a gradual acceleration expected in the following years, projecting expansion of 6.2 percent to 6.8 percent by 2029/2030.
“The current plan is a dynamic roadmap designed to address potential global shocks,” Rostom said while presenting Egypt’s 2026/2027 economic and social development plan before the Senate. He noted that the strategy incorporates scenarios such as disruptions to maritime trade routes and sudden spikes in global commodity prices.
The projections come as Egypt continues to manage the impact of inflationary pressures, currency adjustments and external financing needs, while also pursuing structural reforms aimed at boosting investment and private-sector participation.
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The minister also announced significant increases in public spending on key social sectors, saying budget allocations for health, education, scientific research and Al-Azhar institutions will rise by between 11 percent and 27.6 percent. He said these areas would be fully exempt from austerity measures under the government’s fiscal framework.
Egypt’s broader fiscal plan for the 2025/2026 financial year, approved in March, projects revenues of 3.1 trillion Egyptian pounds (about US$100 billion), up 19%, and expenditures of 4.6 trillion pounds (about US$148 billion), an 18% increase, according to official figures.
The government also highlighted progress in expanding its universal health insurance programme, a flagship social reform initiative aimed at widening access to healthcare services.
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Rostom said the second phase of the system will be launched in six additional governorates, extending coverage to more than 12 million additional citizens. This expansion will bring total enrolment to around 17 million people by 2030.
Currently, about 5.4 million citizens are covered under the first phase of the scheme, which operates in Port Said, Luxor, Ismailia, South Sinai, Aswan and Suez.
Economists say the growth outlook reflects both Egypt’s reform momentum and its exposure to global risks, particularly in trade, energy prices and capital flows. They note that sustained expansion toward the upper end of projections will depend on macroeconomic stability, continued investment inflows and successful implementation of structural reforms.
The medium-term strategy signals that policymakers are prioritising gradual but steady recovery, with social spending and infrastructure development positioned as key pillars of the growth agenda through the end of the decade.
