Africa’s economic growth is expected to ease to 4.2 percent in 2026 from 4.4 percent last year, as rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East drive up fuel and food prices, the African Development Bank (AfDB) said in its latest annual outlook.
The continent is expected to remain among the world’s fastest-growing regions alongside Asia, continuing to outperform Europe and Latin America despite external shocks, the bank said in its report published on Tuesday.
Growth is projected to rebound slightly to 4.4 percent in 2027, assuming that the current Middle East-related disruptions to energy and supply chains prove temporary.
According to the AfDB, the expected slowdown reflects higher import costs, particularly for fuel and fertiliser, as well as increased pressure on food security across several regions.
“The impact of this shock on growth and macroeconomic stability will depend on the duration of supply chain disruptions and their effects on global energy and fertilizer prices,” the bank said.
The outlook was released during the AfDB’s annual meetings in Brazzaville, where policymakers and development partners are discussing strategies to mobilise financing for infrastructure and economic transformation across the continent.
The meeting comes amid renewed concern over global commodity volatility and tightening fiscal conditions in several African economies.
The AfDB said growth in 2025 was supported by improved agricultural output, stronger macroeconomic management and relatively firm commodity prices, helping offset earlier global trade and geopolitical shocks.
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East Africa, the continent’s fastest-growing subregion, is expected to experience a noticeable slowdown this year as higher energy costs and import inflation weigh on economic activity and worsen food security pressures.
Despite the moderation, Africa remains one of the world’s most dynamic growth regions, with several economies continuing to expand rapidly on the back of infrastructure investment, services growth and commodity exports.
AfDB President Sidi Ould Tah said sustained and inclusive growth would require significantly higher levels of investment across the continent.
He said Africa would need to raise its long-term growth rate to above 7 percent to generate sufficient employment opportunities and reduce poverty levels.
Tah has made mobilising domestic capital and reducing reliance on external aid a central focus of his agenda, including efforts to strengthen regional financial integration and development financing mechanisms.
The bank also highlighted ongoing concerns about global economic uncertainty, including fluctuations in energy markets and supply chains, which continue to affect inflation and fiscal stability across developing economies.
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Officials noted that Africa’s development outlook remains highly sensitive to external shocks, particularly in energy-importing countries that face rising costs linked to global conflicts and currency pressures.
At the same time, the AfDB emphasised that structural reforms, improved governance and expanded investment in agriculture, energy and infrastructure could help sustain long-term growth momentum.
The outlook underscores a broader challenge facing African policymakers: balancing short-term vulnerability to global shocks with long-term ambitions for industrialisation, job creation and economic diversification.
Despite near-term headwinds, the bank said Africa’s medium-term growth prospects remain positive if structural constraints are addressed and financing gaps are narrowed.
