The Ghana cedi and Zambia’s kwacha are expected to remain under pressure in the coming week, while the currencies of Kenya and Uganda are likely to hold steady, traders said on Thursday.
In Ghana, the cedi is seen extending recent losses against the dollar, weighed down by persistent demand for foreign exchange from key sectors of the economy.
Data from London Stock Exchange Group showed the cedi trading at 11.03 to the dollar on Thursday, compared with 11.01 a week earlier.
Market participants say strong demand for dollars from the energy, commerce and manufacturing sectors continues to outstrip supply, keeping the local currency under strain.
“Strong FX demand is likely to support a firmer dollar in the week ahead, as supply remains tight despite improved interbank market activity,” said Andrews Akoto, head of trading at Absa Bank Ghana.
He pointed to the latest central bank foreign-exchange auction, where bids exceeded $401 million but only $110 million was allocated, highlighting a significant backlog in demand.
In East Africa, however, currencies are expected to remain broadly stable amid easing global pressures.
Kenya’s shilling is forecast to trade in a narrow range, supported by reduced demand for foreign currency following improved global sentiment after a ceasefire between the United States and Iran.
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The shilling was quoted at 129.05/129.25 per dollar on Thursday, little changed from 129.10/129.40 a week earlier.
Traders say calmer global markets and expectations of a sustained diplomatic breakthrough have reduced pressure on the currency.
Similarly, Uganda’s shilling is projected to remain stable, supported by steady dollar inflows from the country’s key export sector.
Commercial banks quoted the currency at 3,695/3,705 per dollar, compared with 3,687/3,697 at the same time last week.
“We are seeing inflows from coffee exports, while demand from energy importers has moderated,” one trader said.
The currency is expected to trade within a 3,670–3,710 range against the dollar in the coming days.
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In southern Africa, Zambia’s kwacha is likely to face renewed pressure, reflecting volatility in global copper prices — the country’s main source of foreign exchange earnings.
The kwacha, used in Africa’s second-largest copper producer, was quoted at 19.40 per dollar, slightly firmer than 19.46 a week earlier.
Analysts at Access Bank said recent gains in copper prices have helped cushion the currency, but warned that the outlook remains uncertain.
“The recovery in copper prices has provided some support, but volatility in the commodity market could reintroduce pressure on the kwacha,” the bank said in a note.
A renewed downturn in copper prices would likely weaken the currency further, traders added.
Overall, the outlook for African currencies remains mixed, with country-specific factors — including export earnings, foreign exchange demand and global commodity trends — continuing to shape performance across the continent.
While East African currencies appear relatively insulated for now, pressure on commodity-linked and import-dependent economies underscores the fragility of recent stability in foreign exchange markets.
