The United Nations has warned that the ongoing Ebola outbreak in Central Africa could inflict economic losses of as much as $3.6 billion across the continent if the virus spreads beyond its current hotspots, underscoring the growing threat the health emergency poses to lives, livelihoods and economic stability.
The warning comes as the outbreak of the Bundibugyo strain of the Ebola virus continues to expand in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), with confirmed cases also reported in neighbouring Uganda. According to the latest official figures, more than 1,300 infections and over 370 deaths have been recorded since the outbreak was declared in mid-May, making it one of the most significant Ebola emergencies in recent years.
In a new assessment, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) said the crisis extends far beyond public health, warning that prolonged disruptions to trade, transport, agriculture and local businesses could trigger a broader development setback across Africa if containment efforts are not strengthened.
The UNDP outlined three possible economic scenarios depending on how the outbreak evolves. Under the most optimistic outcome, where the virus remains largely confined to affected areas in the DRC and Uganda, the economic impact is estimated at around $1 billion. However, if the disease spreads into additional countries such as Rwanda and Angola while coinciding with continued global economic pressures, including higher fuel prices, total losses could climb to approximately $3.6 billion.
Beyond the financial cost, the agency warned that the outbreak could eliminate as many as 328,000 jobs across the continent and push nearly one million more people into poverty. Women and workers in the informal economy are expected to bear the greatest burden because of their heavy dependence on cross-border trade, local markets and small-scale businesses that are particularly vulnerable during disease outbreaks.
More Read
Health experts have expressed growing concern over the Bundibugyo strain of the virus because there is currently no fully approved vaccine or proven treatment specifically designed to combat it. Researchers and international health organisations are working to accelerate clinical trials of experimental vaccines and therapeutics, but officials say additional financial support is urgently needed to speed up those efforts.
The outbreak has also presented significant operational challenges. Armed conflict in eastern DRC, population displacement, attacks on healthcare facilities and community mistrust have complicated surveillance, contact tracing and treatment efforts, making it more difficult for health workers to contain transmission. These factors have raised concerns that the virus could spread into neighbouring countries if response measures are not intensified.
International health agencies, including the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) and the World Health Organization (WHO), have appealed for increased financial and logistical support. Africa CDC recently revised its funding requirements for the Ebola response to approximately $1.4 billion and is seeking an additional $18 million to support clinical trials of promising experimental treatments, arguing that delays in financing could significantly undermine containment efforts.
More Read
The United Nations stressed that investing in rapid containment now would cost far less than responding to a prolonged regional crisis later. According to the UNDP, effective surveillance, community engagement, stronger healthcare systems and sustained international funding remain the most effective tools for limiting both the health and economic consequences of the outbreak.
Economists note that epidemics often disrupt far more than healthcare systems. Restrictions on movement, reduced consumer activity, interrupted supply chains and declining investor confidence can slow economic growth long after infection rates begin to fall. For countries already facing inflationary pressures and constrained public finances, another major regional health crisis could significantly delay development objectives.
The latest warning serves as a reminder that disease outbreaks have far-reaching consequences extending well beyond hospitals and treatment centres. While governments continue strengthening public health responses, the UN says coordinated international action remains essential to prevent the current Ebola outbreak from developing into a wider humanitarian and economic crisis.
With the virus still spreading in parts of Central Africa, health authorities are urging governments, development partners and donors to act swiftly. They maintain that rapid investment in containment measures today could save thousands of lives, protect millions of livelihoods and prevent billions of dollars in economic losses across the continent.
