Gabon remains under significant fiscal strain after Fitch Ratings affirmed its long-term foreign-currency sovereign rating at “CCC-”, citing rising debt levels, widening budget deficits and increased refinancing risks.
In a statement issued on Friday, Fitch Ratings also maintained Gabon’s local-currency rating at “CC”, reflecting continued financial vulnerabilities and constrained fiscal space.
The agency said the country’s public finances deteriorated sharply in 2025, driven largely by higher government spending, particularly on infrastructure projects that significantly expanded the fiscal deficit.
Fitch estimates the deficit at 12.2% of gross domestic product, a level it said reflects spending far above recent historical averages and increasing pressure on public accounts.
The fiscal deterioration has also translated into rising debt levels. According to Fitch, Gabon’s public debt increased from 72% of GDP in 2024 to about 81.1% in 2025, and could approach 88% by 2027 if oil prices weaken or financing conditions tighten further.
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The agency warned that the country faces substantial refinancing needs in the coming years, with repayments due on both domestic and international debt obligations creating sustained funding pressure.
To meet those obligations, Gabon is expected to continue relying on external financing, including a $1 billion loan from commodity trader Trafigura Group, as well as anticipated support from the World Bank and bilateral partners.
Fitch also noted that discussions are ongoing between Gabonese authorities and the International Monetary Fund over a possible new financing programme, which could provide additional fiscal support and policy guidance.
In response to mounting debt concerns, the government has launched an audit of public debt aimed at improving transparency and clarifying the country’s financial obligations.
Despite fiscal pressures, Fitch projects moderate economic growth of around 3.2% between 2026 and 2027, supported by public investment and steady oil production, which remains central to Gabon’s economy.
However, the agency warned that any deterioration in access to external financing or reduced debt-servicing capacity could trigger a downgrade in the country’s sovereign rating.
The outlook underscores the vulnerability of oil-dependent economies such as Gabon, where fluctuations in commodity prices and borrowing conditions can quickly translate into fiscal stress.
Analysts say the country’s ability to stabilise its debt trajectory will depend on maintaining investor confidence, improving fiscal discipline and securing concessional financing support from multilateral institutions.
For now, Fitch’s affirmation signals continued caution from credit markets, with Gabon’s fiscal position remaining fragile despite ongoing reform efforts and external support discussions.
