Kenya is expected to record a 12 percent increase in coffee exports in the 2026/27 marketing year, supported by improving production conditions and the maturation of newly planted coffee farms, according to a United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) report.
The report projects that exports will rise to 940,000 bags, equivalent to about 56,400 metric tonnes, up from 50,400 metric tonnes in the previous season.
If realised, the increase would mark an 11.9 percent expansion in export volumes, driven largely by favourable weather conditions and improved farm productivity across key growing regions.
Production is also forecast to increase to 950,000 bags, or 57,000 metric tonnes, as new coffee plantations in enter their productive phase.
The USDA attributed the expected growth to ongoing sector expansion programmes supported by both national and county governments, particularly in the Central, Eastern and Rift Valley regions, which remain the country’s main coffee-growing zones.
The New Kenya Planters Co-operative Union programme, backed by a government revolving fund, is supplying farmers with seedlings and fertilisers in an effort to boost yields and expand cultivated acreage.
Several county administrations have also introduced subsidy schemes aimed at reducing input costs and encouraging more farmers to return to coffee farming, a sector that has faced challenges in recent decades due to high production costs and fluctuating global prices.
Kenya remains one of the world’s leading producers of high-quality Arabica coffee, a variety that typically commands premium prices on the international market compared with Robusta.
Higher export volumes are expected to translate into stronger foreign exchange earnings, particularly at a time when global coffee prices have remained elevated due to supply constraints in major producing countries.
Coffee export earnings have already shown strong growth in recent years, with revenues more than doubling between 2021 and 2025.
According to data from Kenya’s national statistics office, earnings rose from 26.1 billion Kenyan shillings ($201.5 million) in 2021 to 52.05 billion shillings (US$402 million) in 2025.
Despite the positive outlook, analysts note that Kenya’s coffee sector continues to face structural challenges, including ageing farmer populations, high input costs and competition for land from other cash crops and real estate development.
Climate variability also remains a key risk, with irregular rainfall patterns and rising temperatures affecting yields in some growing regions.
However, government and industry stakeholders have expressed optimism that ongoing reforms and targeted investment could help stabilise production and improve farmer incomes over the medium term.
The sector is also benefiting from renewed global demand for specialty coffee, which has helped support prices and improve Kenya’s competitiveness in niche export markets.
If the forecast materialises, the increase in export volumes would further strengthen coffee’s role as one of Kenya’s key foreign exchange earners, alongside tea, horticulture and tourism.
For now, attention remains focused on whether improved planting programmes and supportive policies can translate into sustained productivity gains in the coming seasons.
