Kenya’s tea exports rose 6 percent in the first quarter of the year, supported by strong demand from key markets such as Pakistan, even as geopolitical tensions and regional conflicts reshaped global trade flows, industry data showed.
Pakistan remained Kenya’s largest tea importer, taking a record 56.47 million kilograms between January and March, an increase of 7.22 million kilograms compared with the same period last year.
The South Asian country accounted for 39 percent of Kenya’s total tea exports during the period, reinforcing its position as the backbone of the East African nation’s tea industry.
Kenya is a critical supplier to Pakistan’s tea market, providing nearly 70 percent of its imports, in a trade relationship valued at about US$557 million in 2024.
Pakistan’s strong demand is driven by high domestic consumption, as the country lacks commercial tea production but has one of the highest per-capita consumption rates globally.
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Industry analysts say Kenyan black CTC tea has become essential to major Pakistani brands, including Tapal and international blends such as Lipton, making substitution difficult in the short term.
Beyond Pakistan, Kenya also recorded growth in several other markets.
Exports to Egypt rose by 5.91 million kilograms, while shipments to the United Kingdom increased by 1.34 million kilograms over the same period.
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Yemen posted one of the strongest gains, with imports from Kenya surging 140 percent to 2.64 million kilograms, driven partly by rerouted trade flows through intermediary markets such as Oman due to ongoing regional instability in the Gulf.
However, the overall expansion masks significant volatility in other traditional markets, underscoring the sector’s exposure to geopolitical and diplomatic risks.
Sudan recorded the sharpest decline, with tea imports from Kenya falling 69 percent to 1.79 million kilograms following a trade ban imposed in March 2025.
The ban came after diplomatic tensions escalated when Nairobi hosted figures linked to Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF), deepening the impact of the country’s ongoing civil war on regional commerce.
Jordan also saw a steep drop of 71 percent in imports from Kenya, reflecting broader disruptions in Middle Eastern trade routes amid security challenges and rising logistics costs.
China, another key market, reduced its purchases by 51 percent to 1.22 million kilograms, with analysts attributing the decline to weaker demand for bulk black CTC tea used in blending rather than direct consumption.
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Industry observers warn that China’s reduced appetite may indicate a longer-term structural shift in sourcing patterns rather than a temporary slowdown.
While Kenya’s tea sector continues to benefit from strong core demand, particularly from Pakistan, the shifting export landscape highlights growing concentration risks and increasing vulnerability to geopolitical shocks.
Analysts say the sector’s future stability will depend on diversification into new markets and greater resilience against political disruptions affecting traditional trade corridors.
