The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has already shaved an estimated 0.3 percentage points off Africa’s economic growth, according to new insights from the International Monetary Fund, raising concerns about the continent’s vulnerability to external shocks.
In its April 2026 regional outlook, the IMF noted that sub-Saharan Africa had recorded its strongest growth acceleration in over a decade in 2025, expanding by 4.5%. This performance was driven by recoveries in key economies such as Nigeria and Ethiopia, alongside improved export performance, relatively strong commodity prices, and resilient remittance inflows.
The report also highlighted improving macroeconomic conditions across the region. Median inflation declined to 3.4% by the end of 2025, while fiscal deficits narrowed and public debt levels eased. Several countries, including Benin, Côte d’Ivoire, Uganda and Rwanda, posted growth rates above 6%, positioning them among the fastest-growing economies globally.
However, this positive trajectory is now under threat.
The IMF identified the war in the Middle East as a major external shock, primarily through its impact on global energy markets. Rising oil and gas prices have significantly increased import bills for African economies that rely heavily on energy imports, while also disrupting supply chains and driving imported inflation.
Countries such as Kenya, Malawi and Sierra Leone have already experienced fuel shortages affecting electricity generation, transport systems and industrial output. At the same time, surging fuel costs have triggered social tensions in Mali and Zimbabwe.
The crisis is also spilling into agriculture.
Higher fertiliser prices, driven by global supply disruptions, are threatening crop yields and increasing the risk of food inflation across the continent. Combined with rising transport and logistics costs, these pressures are weakening already fragile supply chains and reducing the competitiveness of African exports.
Tourism, another key source of foreign exchange, has also taken a hit. Destinations such as Rwanda and Seychelles are seeing reduced visitor numbers, further straining external balances.
In response to these developments, the IMF has revised its projections. Regional growth is now expected to slow to 4.3% in 2026, while median inflation could rise to around 5% by the end of the year.
The impact is uneven across the continent.
Oil-exporting countries are benefiting from higher global energy prices, which are boosting revenues and improving current account balances. In contrast, energy-importing nations are facing widening deficits, increased borrowing needs and mounting fiscal pressure.
The IMF warned that fiscal conditions are likely to deteriorate further. The median budget deficit is projected to rise to 3.2% of GDP in 2026, as governments increase spending on fuel subsidies and social support measures. Meanwhile, more than one-third of African countries are now classified as being at high risk of debt distress, with interest payments consuming a growing share of public revenues.
Beyond immediate economic pressures, the crisis is exposing deeper structural vulnerabilities.
Per capita income growth is expected to remain modest over the medium term, limiting improvements in living standards. At the same time, rising food prices are increasing the risk of malnutrition, particularly among children, and could exacerbate social instability in vulnerable regions.
In a worst-case scenario, the IMF estimates that energy-importing countries could lose up to 1.5 percentage points of growth in 2026 and as much as 2.8 percentage points in 2027. Inflation could also rise sharply, increasing by up to 2.4 percentage points in 2026 and 3.8 percentage points in 2027.
The broader implication is clear.
Africa’s economic recovery, while real, remains fragile and highly exposed to global shocks. The Middle East conflict has become a reminder that external risks—particularly in energy and trade—can quickly reverse gains made through domestic reforms and favourable market conditions.
For policymakers, the challenge now is twofold: managing immediate pressures while accelerating structural reforms that reduce dependence on volatile external factors.
