Nigeria’s trade sector attracted US$65.79 million in foreign capital in the first quarter of 2026, marking a 91.31 percent increase from the US$34.39 million recorded in the same period last year, according to official data.
Figures from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) capital importation report showed that the sector continued to draw renewed investor interest, even as quarterly inflows moderated compared with the strong performance recorded in the second half of 2025.
The latest inflow, however, was lower than the US$80.94 million recorded in the third quarter of 2025 and the US$119.21 million reported in the fourth quarter of the same year, indicating a slowdown in momentum after two consecutive quarters of growth.
Despite the quarterly dip, analysts said the year-on-year increase reflects improving investor confidence in commercial activity, currency stability and expanding cross-border trade within Africa’s largest economy.
The trade sector also emerged as the single largest contributor to Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product in the first quarter of 2026, accounting for 17.89 percent of total output, according to the NBS.
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Economic experts linked the performance to a combination of macroeconomic adjustments, improved foreign exchange liquidity and easing inflationary pressures.
“One of the most significant highlights of the report is the emergence of the trade sector as the single largest contributor to GDP at 17.89 percent,” said Muda Yusuf, chief executive of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise.
“This reflects the positive effects of improved exchange rate stability, better FX liquidity conditions, easing inflationary pressures and recovering business confidence on commercial activities and trade flows,” he added.
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However, Yusuf cautioned that Nigeria’s long-term economic transformation cannot rely solely on commerce, stressing the need for stronger industrial production and domestic value addition.
“Long-term growth resilience requires stronger productive capacity, deeper industrialisation and significantly higher domestic value addition,” he said.
Industry stakeholders also pointed to growing optimism around regional integration under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which is expected to deepen intra-African trade and investment flows.
In her contribution to The Boardroom Africa 2026 Industry Trends Report, Bowale Adeoye, chief executive of Seedtree Capital, said innovations in trade finance and logistics were reshaping cross-border commerce on the continent.
“Trade finance innovation is reshaping intra-African commerce. The shift from dollar-intermediated systems toward continental payment infrastructure is reducing transaction costs and settlement delays while addressing Africa’s $100–120 billion trade finance gap,” she said.
Adeoye noted that platforms such as the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System were helping businesses conduct transactions in local currencies, improving liquidity and reducing costs.
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She also highlighted the growing role of cold-chain logistics in strengthening trade resilience across Africa.
“Cold chain logistics is becoming a critical enabler of Africa’s trade resilience,” she said, adding that the sector was evolving toward more technology-driven and asset-light models to improve food preservation and pharmaceutical distribution.
According to Adeoye, local value addition is increasingly becoming central to competitiveness in African markets.
“Localisation is no longer aspirational; it is foundational to competitiveness, tariff optimisation, and supply resilience,” she said.
Similarly, Ijeoma Ezenwa, chief executive of NAHCO Commodities Limited, said Africa’s agricultural trade is shifting from raw commodity exports toward processed and value-added products.
“African agriculture is shifting from exporting raw commodities toward building value through agro-processing and more integrated value chains,” she said.
Ezenwa added that market access is increasingly determined by quality standards, traceability and compliance rather than production volumes alone.
Agribusinesses investing in digital traceability, structured farmer onboarding and export documentation, she said, are gaining stronger pricing and more reliable trade relationships.
At the policy level, Nigeria’s Ministry of Industry, Trade and Investment said it plans to prioritise trade facilitation, export expansion and investment mobilisation in 2026.
The ministry also intends to strengthen industrial clusters, support women-led enterprises, and promote a national Made-in-Nigeria campaign aimed at boosting local production.
Officials said the government is also focusing on digital infrastructure and artificial intelligence tools to improve governance and trade efficiency.
Overall foreign capital inflows into Nigeria rose to US$10.37 billion in the first quarter of 2026, compared with US$5.64 billion in the same period in 2025. Portfolio investment accounted for the bulk of inflows, while foreign direct investment stood at US$135.08 million.
Analysts said the sustained interest in the trade sector, combined with regional integration efforts and ongoing reforms, could strengthen Nigeria’s position as a key hub for commerce in Africa over the coming years.
