Nigeria seeks new US$1.25bn World Bank loan ahead of 2027 election

Nigeria is in advanced talks with the World Bank over a proposed U$1.25 billion loan aimed at supporting economic reforms, job creation and investment competitiveness, according to official documents reviewed by local media.

The facility, known as the Nigeria Actions for Investment and Jobs Acceleration programme, is expected to be presented for approval on June 26, 2026, just months before the country’s presidential election scheduled for January 2027.

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If approved, the loan would become the second-largest single World Bank facility secured under President Bola Tinubu, after the US$1.5 billion economic stabilisation financing approved in June 2024.

At the current exchange rate, the proposed loan is valued at about 1.70 trillion naira, underlining the scale of external financing Nigeria continues to pursue as it implements wide-ranging economic reforms.

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The World Bank document indicated that the project has reached the “decision meeting” stage, one of the final phases before consideration by the lender’s Board of Executive Directors for formal approval.

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According to the bank, the financing is intended to support reforms aimed at expanding access to finance, electricity and digital services while improving competitiveness through changes in taxation, trade and agriculture.

The borrower is listed as the Federal Republic of Nigeria, with the Finance Ministry expected to oversee implementation in coordination with agencies including the Central Bank of Nigeria, the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission.

The proposed facility would increase Nigeria’s external debt stock from 74.43 trillion naira ($51.86 billion) at the end of 2025 to at least 76.13 trillion naira ($53.11 billion), assuming full disbursement.

Nigeria’s total public debt would also rise from 159.28 trillion naira ($110.97 billion) to approximately 160.98 trillion naira ($112.22 billion).

Since Tinubu took office in 2023, the World Bank has approved about $9.35 billion in loans and credits for Nigeria across sectors including energy, education, healthcare, agriculture and social protection.

If the latest facility is approved, total World Bank commitments to Nigeria under the current administration would rise to around $10.6 billion.

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However, economists and policy analysts have raised concerns about Nigeria’s growing dependence on multilateral borrowing amid weak domestic revenue generation and mounting debt servicing costs.

The Accountant-General of the Federation, Shamseldeen Ogunjimi, recently warned that Nigeria could reconsider future borrowing arrangements if approval and disbursement processes remain slow.

“If approvals take more than six months, the Nigerian Government may no longer honour such arrangements,” Ogunjimi said during a meeting with World Bank officials in Abuja.

The World Bank has maintained that disbursements are tied to agreed policy reforms and project milestones rather than released in a single payment.

According to the Debt Management Office, Nigeria owed the World Bank $19.89 billion as of December 2025, an increase of 11.7 percent from the previous year.

That figure accounted for more than 38 percent of the country’s total external debt stock.

The proposed programme forms part of broader reform initiatives supported by the World Bank, including projects targeting agriculture, financial inclusion, renewable energy and economic resilience.

The lender said the operation is designed to support Nigeria’s transition toward more inclusive growth through improved agricultural productivity, stronger private investment, expanded digital services and better electricity access.

But the bank also acknowledged significant political and governance risks ahead of the 2027 elections, warning that sensitive reforms could face delays or reversals.

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Economists say while concessional loans from multilateral lenders can support development if properly managed, Nigeria’s debt sustainability increasingly depends on stronger revenue mobilisation and disciplined public spending.

The Nigerian Economic Summit Group warned this week that the country remains in a “high-risk fiscal environment” despite signs of temporary improvement in debt indicators.

The group said persistent borrowing and weak fiscal capacity continued to expose Africa’s largest economy to long-term financial vulnerabilities.

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