Fossil fuels are expected to remain the dominant source of electricity generation in Africa through 2030 despite rapid growth in renewable energy, according to new research that urges governments to integrate energy, water and climate planning.
The study found that electricity generation across the continent is projected to increase by 57 percent by 2030 as African countries seek to expand access to power for millions of people.
Only about 57 percent of Africans currently have access to electricity, with most of those without power living in sub-Saharan Africa. Expanding electricity generation is considered essential to achieving the United Nations’ goal of universal access to affordable electricity by 2030.
Researchers compiled what they describe as the most comprehensive database of Africa’s power sector, covering 3,139 existing, under-construction and planned power plants across the continent through 2030.
The database includes information on each facility’s location, generation capacity, electricity output, water use and carbon emissions.
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According to the study, renewable energy’s share of electricity generation is expected to rise from 19 percent to 34 percent by 2030. However, fossil fuels, including coal, oil and natural gas, are still projected to account for about 61 percent of total electricity generation.
The researchers warned that Africa’s planned energy expansion could leave the continent slightly short of meeting emissions reduction commitments made under the Paris climate agreement.
They also highlighted the growing pressure that electricity generation could place on water resources.
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Hydropower expansion is expected to increase water use by 73 percent by 2030, while dams can also affect freshwater biodiversity and fisheries that support food security and rural livelihoods.
Hydropower generation has also become increasingly vulnerable to climate extremes. Southern Africa experienced severe electricity shortages in 2024 after drought reduced water levels at the Kariba Dam, limiting electricity production for countries including Zambia.
The study found that planned coal- and gas-fired power plants would be the main drivers of a projected 19 percent increase in carbon dioxide emissions by 2030.
Major gas-fired projects are planned or under construction in Algeria, Libya, Nigeria, Tanzania and South Africa, while coal-fired plants are being developed in Nigeria, Zimbabwe and Botswana.
At the same time, countries including Morocco, South Africa, Egypt, Namibia, Ethiopia, Kenya and Ghana are investing heavily in wind and solar energy. Kenya, Ethiopia, Uganda and Tanzania are also expanding geothermal power, taking advantage of their favourable geological conditions.
The researchers noted that Africa has exploited only a small fraction of its vast solar and wind resources compared with hydropower potential.
They argued that renewable technologies such as solar and wind generally require far less water, produce significantly lower greenhouse gas emissions and can often be deployed more quickly than conventional thermal power plants.
The study recommends that governments integrate energy and water planning, assess local water availability before approving new power projects and strengthen cross-border cooperation in managing shared river basins.
It also calls for greater investment in renewable energy, battery storage, regional electricity transmission networks and decentralised systems such as solar home installations and small-scale hydropower to improve electricity access, particularly in rural communities.
The researchers said better access to reliable data would help policymakers make informed decisions that balance growing electricity demand with water security and climate objectives.
