The World Bank has sharply lowered its growth forecast for Mozambique in 2026, warning that escalating geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainty are threatening prospects for one of southern Africa’s most fragile economies.
In its latest Global Economic Prospects report released Thursday, the Washington-based lender said Mozambique’s economy is now expected to expand by just 0.9 percent this year, down from an earlier projection of 2.8 percent.
The 1.9 percentage-point downgrade represents the steepest revision among Portuguese-speaking African countries and comes as the country continues to recover from a recession triggered by political unrest following last year’s elections.
The World Bank attributed the weaker outlook largely to the economic fallout from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which it said has disrupted global trade flows, driven up energy costs and increased uncertainty across developing economies.
“Rising geopolitical tensions are weighing on growth prospects across emerging markets and developing economies,” the report said, noting that commodity-dependent countries remain particularly vulnerable to external shocks.
Mozambique, which relies heavily on imports of fuel and other essential goods while seeking to expand its vast natural gas sector, is expected to face mounting pressure from higher global prices and weaker external demand.
The downgrade highlights the challenges confronting the southeastern African nation as it seeks to restore investor confidence and revive economic activity after a turbulent political period.
Last year’s post-election unrest disrupted businesses, slowed investment and weakened consumer demand, pushing the economy into recession and complicating efforts to sustain growth.
The World Bank also revised downward growth forecasts for several other Portuguese-speaking African countries.
Angola’s economy is now expected to grow by 2.4 percent in 2026, while Cabo Verde and Guinea-Bissau are each projected to expand by 4.8 percent. São Tomé and Príncipe’s growth forecast was reduced to 2.9 percent.
Equatorial Guinea, however, is expected to remain in contraction, with its economy forecast to shrink by 3.5 percent this year, reflecting persistent structural weaknesses and declining hydrocarbon production.
The revisions form part of a broader reassessment of economic prospects across sub-Saharan Africa.
The World Bank cut its growth forecast for the region to 4.0 percent from a previous estimate of 4.3 percent, citing the adverse effects of global instability, higher trade costs and weakening investor sentiment.
Although many African economies have benefited from reforms aimed at improving fiscal stability and attracting investment, the Bank warned that external shocks could undermine those gains.
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It said the Middle East conflict risks overshadowing positive developments such as new trade agreements and ongoing efforts to diversify economies.
The report also cautioned that rising energy and transportation costs could worsen food insecurity in several African countries by increasing agricultural production expenses and limiting access to fertilisers.
Such pressures are expected to be particularly acute for lower-income countries already grappling with high debt burdens, climate-related challenges and limited fiscal space.
While some oil-exporting nations could benefit temporarily from higher crude prices, the World Bank said the gains were likely to be uneven.
Countries such as Angola and Nigeria may experience short-term revenue boosts from elevated oil prices, but most African economies are expected to face higher import bills, inflationary pressures and tighter budget conditions.
For Mozambique, the weaker outlook underscores the importance of maintaining macroeconomic stability and advancing reforms to support investment and job creation, according to the report.
Despite the downgrade, the World Bank said medium-term prospects for the country could improve if global conditions stabilise and major energy projects move forward as planned.
For now, however, Mozambique faces a difficult economic environment as international tensions and domestic vulnerabilities combine to slow the pace of recovery.
