Ivory Coast is holding far more unsold cocoa than previously estimated, in a development that is reshaping global supply expectations and adding downward pressure to international prices, market data shows.
A government census cited in a Cocoa Radar market briefing indicates that the world’s top cocoa producer has about 350,000 tonnes of unsold beans this season nearly three times the official estimate of 123,000 tonnes previously reported by the country’s regulator, the Conseil du Café-Cacao (CCC).
The revised figures suggest that Côte d’Ivoire’s total output for the 2025/26 season could be significantly higher than earlier forecasts. Including an expected 160,000 to 200,000 tonnes from the ongoing mid-crop, total production could reach between 1.98 million and 2.2 million tonnes, well above earlier trade expectations of 1.7 million to 1.8 million tonnes.
The stronger-than-expected supply has already begun to influence global markets, with cocoa futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) easing from earlier highs above $4,000 per tonne to the high $3,700 range before stabilising.
The country’s port arrival data reinforces the picture of a bumper crop, with shipments reaching 1.69 million tonnes by June 7 and weekly deliveries running 64 percent higher than the same period last year.
CCC director Yves Brahima Koné had previously signalled a rebound in production toward 2.0 to 2.1 million tonnes, but the latest inventory figures suggest even that projection may be conservative.
The surplus in Côte d’Ivoire is part of a broader global trend of stronger-than-expected cocoa output. Ecuador is reporting production gains of 3.5 to 3.7 percent year-on-year, while Peru, Brazil and Nigeria have also exceeded earlier forecasts, according to market analysts.
The improved supply outlook has led traders to reassess earlier fears of a global shortage. A deficit once estimated at around 400,000 tonnes now appears to have shifted closer to balance or even surplus conditions, easing the supply squeeze that drove prices to historic highs in 2024.
More Read
However, the outlook is uneven across West Africa. Ghana remains a key weak point in regional production, with output constrained by financing pressures, cross-border smuggling, quality challenges and a slower recovery in farm yields.
These disparities are influencing export flows and reshaping regional trade dynamics, with Côte d’Ivoire increasingly carrying the bulk of global supply growth.
Despite the current surplus, analysts caution that weather risks could quickly alter the market balance. Meteorological forecasts indicate a high likelihood of El Niño conditions developing between June and August, potentially bringing drought and heat stress to major cocoa-growing regions.
Early signs of heat stress have already been observed in parts of Côte d’Ivoire, raising concerns about the next production cycle.
In response to weather uncertainty, the CCC has reportedly slowed forward sales for the 2026/27 season and increased origin premiums, signalling caution over future supply conditions.
Meanwhile, chocolate manufacturers have so far managed to absorb higher raw material costs through selective price increases, product reformulation and hedging strategies, limiting any significant decline in demand.
More Read
Market observers say the cocoa sector is now entering a more balanced phase after a period of extreme volatility, with attention shifting from current surplus conditions to the sustainability of future harvests.
CocoaRadar described the short-term outlook as “neutral to slightly supportive,” noting that weather developments will be the key determinant of price direction in the months ahead as traders reassess supply risks in West Africa and beyond.
